I’ve been living full-time in an RV long enough to have watched this industry make the same mistake twice. I was on the road during the pandemic boom when you couldn’t find a travel trailer for under sticker price if your life depended on it, and I watched from a campsite in Colorado while the hangover from that boom played out across dealer lots in 2022 and 2023. So when the overproduction rumors started circulating in late 2025 and into 2026, I didn’t dismiss them. I pulled the data.
Here’s what it actually shows — and more importantly, what it means for anyone thinking about buying an RV right now.
The short answer: Yes, there are legitimate signs that manufacturers got ahead of themselves again on 2026 model year production, particularly in the towable segment. It’s not a repeat of the 2021 catastrophe, but the pattern is familiar enough to warrant a clear-eyed look at the numbers before anyone signs a purchase agreement.
In This Article:
- How the 2021 overproduction happened and why it matters for understanding 2026
- The specific data that triggered the overproduction conversation
- What’s actually on dealer lots right now — by model year and segment
- How manufacturers are responding and whether it’s working
- What Thor, Forest River, and Winnebago are doing differently this time
- What overproduction means for buyers in concrete terms
- The segments where inventory is most distressed and deals are most available
- The honest outlook for the second half of 2026 and into 2027
How the 2021 Overproduction Happened: The Backstory That Makes 2026 Make Sense
To understand what’s happening now, you need to understand what happened then — because the decisions that created today’s inventory situation were made in 2020 and 2021.
When the pandemic hit, two things happened simultaneously that the RV industry had never experienced before. Demand exploded as millions of Americans discovered the RV lifestyle as the only form of travel that felt safe. And the supply chain collapsed, making it nearly impossible to source the components needed to build rigs fast enough to meet that demand. Chassis, plywood, foam, appliances, wiring harnesses — all of it became scarce.
Manufacturers, fearing the supply chain disruption would be permanent, ordered massive forward stockpiles of components. They signed long-term supply agreements at elevated prices. They hired aggressively and expanded production capacity. And dealers, watching customers pay sticker plus a “convenience fee” just to get a rig, ordered everything they could get their hands on.
MORE: The RV Industry in 2026: What’s Actually Happening, by the Numbers
Then two things happened that nobody planned for: the supply chain fixed itself faster than expected, and the demand boom cooled as the world reopened. Factories that had been capacity-constrained suddenly had all the components they needed and assembly lines running at full speed — into a market that was starting to soften. The result was the inventory glut of 2022-2023, which required painful discounting, dealer consolidation, and manufacturer layoffs to work through. The industry spent the better part of two years digesting what it had produced in one.
By 2024 and into 2025, most observers believed the industry had learned its lesson. Production discipline was the phrase you heard constantly from industry executives. Building to demand, not building to hope, was supposed to be the new philosophy.
The Data That Started the Conversation in Mid-2025
The overproduction concern didn’t come from headlines. It came from inventory tracking data that started showing an uncomfortable pattern in mid-2025.
In July 2025, RVIA posted wholesale shipment data for June showing 29,332 total RVs shipped — up over 4,000 units or nearly 16% year-over-year. Travel trailer shipments specifically came in at 20,730 units, compared to 18,202 a year earlier — a 14% increase. This production increase was happening while retail sales were declining and dealer inventory was already elevated.
The model year inventory data was the specific trigger for concern. An analysis of dealer lots by model year showed 2026 models ramping up dramatically while 2024 and 2025 holdovers were still working through the system. The 2026 model year reached 33,447 units for sale — up by over 14,000 units in a short period — and was outpacing 2025 models at the same point in their model year by a significant margin. The analytical conclusion at the time: 2026 models are greatly outpacing 2025 models so far, which is a real concern as it appears that the industry is overproducing again early on in the model year.
Whether this was manufacturers betting on interest rate declines or hedging against tariff risks by pulling production forward, the result was the same: more rigs heading to dealer lots into a market that was already showing signs of buyer hesitation.
What’s Actually on Dealer Lots Right Now
The current inventory picture is worth understanding in specific terms because it’s not uniform across all segments — and that non-uniformity is where the real information is.
By mid-2026, dealer inventory overall is running approximately 16% above normal levels. That sounds alarming in the abstract, but the detail matters. The inventory overhang is concentrated heavily in towables — specifically conventional travel trailers in the entry and mid-tier price range. These are the units that dominated production during the pandemic boom and that are most sensitive to interest rate and fuel price pressure in the current market.
Fifth wheels are in a middle position — elevated inventory but not distressed in the same way as travel trailers. The buyer demographic for fifth wheels skews toward people who’ve made a larger financial commitment to the RV lifestyle and tend to be less sensitive to short-term rate pressure.
Motorhomes tell a different story entirely. Class A diesel pushers and Sprinter-based Class C and B rigs are not carrying the same inventory burden. Production in these segments has remained more disciplined, demand from the Baby Boomer buyer cohort has stayed relatively stable, and the higher price points mean dealers carry fewer units even in normal times. The overproduction concern is primarily a towable problem.
The model year dynamics on dealer lots are currently as follows: 2022 models have been essentially cleared, dropping from over 39,000 units in mid-2023 to under 600 units currently. 2023 models similarly cleared, down from nearly 94,000 to under 1,500. 2024 models are still moving at around 8,300 units — the 2024 model year appears to have been a historically low production run that has largely been absorbed. 2025 models are in active clearance, with roughly 80,000 units currently on lots and dealers aggressively discounting to move them as 2026 models arrive. And 2026 models are piling up faster than their predecessors did at the same point in the model year.
The specific pressure point is dealers simultaneously carrying 2025 holdovers they’re trying to discount and 2026 new arrivals they’ve committed to ordering. That dual inventory burden is what’s driving the aggressive pricing conversations happening on dealer lots across the country right now.
How Manufacturers Are Responding — And Whether It’s Working
The major manufacturers have not ignored the data. The response has varied in speed and aggressiveness, but there are clear moves happening across the industry.
Alliance RV cut assembly operations from five days to four days across most of its five Elkhart factories after spring sales came in weaker than expected — a roughly 10% production reduction since March 2026. That’s a meaningful and relatively fast response to demand signals.
Thor Industries, the largest manufacturer in the industry, has been through this before and moved earlier. Thor announced layoffs affecting hundreds of workers across brands including Heartland, Cruiser, and DRV, and consolidated Heartland under Jayco’s operational umbrella in 2025 — a move that reads as cost discipline and production rationalization more than a vote of confidence in Heartland’s standalone future.
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Forest River has been running reduced shifts and dealing with furloughs, while also navigating significant recall activity on various models. Forest River’s challenge is its sheer scale — as the largest single manufacturer by unit volume, its production decisions have an outsized effect on overall industry inventory levels, and reducing output meaningfully requires more organizational inertia to overcome than smaller manufacturers.
Winnebago Industries has taken a different approach — focusing on premium and specialty segments where demand has shown more resilience, reducing exposure to the commodity-priced entry-level towable market that’s most distressed, and investing in new products like the Elora and Resa C-Van that target buyers with more income stability. Winnebago’s diversification into marine has also provided some financial buffer against the RV-specific headwinds.
The overall assessment: manufacturers are responding, but slowly enough that 2026 inventory levels will remain elevated for the remainder of the year. The production discipline that the industry promised after 2022-2023 has partially been maintained, but the 2026 model year got ahead of retail demand in the towable segment before the signal was clear enough to trigger full production pullbacks.
What Overproduction Actually Means for Buyers
Here’s the part that matters most if you’re shopping an RV right now, and I want to be direct about the mechanics rather than vague about “good deals being available.”
On new towable pricing: Discounts of 20-30% off MSRP are not exceptional right now — they’re the floor for informed negotiation. Dealers who paid invoice price for rigs that have been sitting 90+ days have carrying costs they’re trying to recover and floor plan interest accumulating daily. They have significant motivation to move inventory at prices that might have seemed impossible two years ago. If a dealer won’t discount at all on a towable unit that’s been on the lot more than 60 days, find a different dealer.
The model year arbitrage on 2025 holdovers: This is the specific opportunity that the current situation creates. A 2025 model year rig that’s functionally identical to a 2026 — same floorplan, same features, same construction — can be purchased with significantly more aggressive discounting than the arriving 2026 models because dealers are actively clearing prior year inventory. The 2026 model year improvements in most towable lines are incremental rather than transformational. Buying a well-discounted 2025 holdover versus a 2026 at a smaller discount is often a better financial decision.
On used towable pricing: The used market is absorbing the downstream effects of new inventory pressure. Wholesale values for used towables have been declining steadily, with Black Book data showing steady declines throughout 2025 and continuing into 2026. If you’re buying used, the correction is real and meaningful — rigs that were priced at pandemic-era values are now approaching pre-2020 norms. The steepest corrections are in the mid-tier travel trailer segment, which aligns with where the new inventory overhang is most concentrated.
On motorhomes: The same dynamics don’t apply with the same force. Motorhome inventory is not distressed in the way towable inventory is, and the dealer motivation for aggressive discounting is correspondingly lower. You can still negotiate, and you should — but expecting 25-30% off a Class B or C motorhome because you read about dealer inventory pressure in the travel trailer market would be miscalibrated.
Financing reality check: The dealer incentive side of the equation is one thing. The financing side is a different constraint that doesn’t respond to inventory pressure. RV loan rates remain elevated, currently running around 8.5% for buyers with solid credit and higher for those without. A rig that’s discounted 25% off MSRP but financed at 8.5% over 15 years still results in a significant total cost of ownership. The inventory situation favors buyers who can either pay cash, put down a substantial down payment, or access other financing sources.
The Segments Where Deals Are Most Distressed
Being specific about where the opportunity is most acute right now:
Entry and mid-tier travel trailers from the major manufacturers. Jayco Jay Flight, Forest River Rockwood and Flagstaff, Keystone Passport and Springdale — these are the segments with the most inventory and the most dealer motivation. If you’re shopping a rig in the $25,000-$50,000 new range, the current environment is strongly in your favor.
Fifth wheels in the $50,000-$80,000 range. Not as distressed as entry-level travel trailers, but still carrying elevated inventory that’s creating negotiating leverage that didn’t exist 18 months ago. Grand Design Reflection and Solitude, Keystone Montana, Alliance Avenue — all worth negotiating aggressively.
Larger luxury fifth wheels from brands under production pressure. Heartland’s Landmark and Bighorn have been affected by Thor’s consolidation moves, and rigs under brands facing organizational uncertainty sometimes create buying opportunities as dealers try to move them without the manufacturer marketing support they’d normally receive.
The 2024 and 2025 holdovers across most towable categories. This is where I’d focus most attention. The clearance pressure on prior-model-year units is real and creates the most defined price advantage for buyers willing to accept a rig that’s one model year behind.
Is This 2022 All Over Again?
The reasonable question is whether this is the early signal of a repeat of the 2022-2023 inventory disaster, and the honest answer is: probably not at the same scale, but the direction is uncomfortably familiar.
The key difference between 2021-2022 and now is scale. The pandemic boom generated over 600,000 wholesale shipments at peak — a number that had no precedent and no sustainable demand base to support it. The current situation involves elevated production into a 300,000-350,000 unit annual market — still an overrun relative to current retail demand, but not the historically unprecedented overrun that created the 2022-2023 glut.
The second difference is manufacturer response speed. The industry now has institutional memory of what happens when production stays elevated past the demand signal. The moves happening at Thor, Alliance, and others are faster than the equivalent responses in 2022. Whether they’re fast enough to prevent significant inventory accumulation is the open question.
MORE: Best Value Used RVs From the Last 8 Years: Every Category, Real Numbers
The third difference is the used market dynamic. In 2022, the used market was still pricing at pandemic highs, which created a two-tier problem — new inventory overhang plus inflated used values that would eventually have to correct. In 2026, used values have already corrected. The used market is functioning more normally, which means the downstream pressure from new inventory clearing won’t be compounded by an additional used value correction of the same magnitude.
My read on the situation: this is a meaningful inventory problem in the towable segment that will result in continued price pressure on new and used units through the end of 2026 and likely into early 2027. It’s not a structural collapse. It’s not 2022 again. But it’s real, it’s data-supported, and it creates a genuine buying window that informed shoppers should take advantage of.
The manufacturers that manage production discipline through this period will emerge in a stronger competitive position. The ones that continue building to hope rather than demand will face the same painful clearing process in 2027 that the industry endured in 2022-2023.
As a full-timer who’s watched this cycle twice now, my honest advice: if you’ve been waiting for the right moment to buy a travel trailer or fifth wheel, the data suggests that moment is now and through the end of this year. The deals available on 2025 holdovers and aggressively priced 2026 units won’t last indefinitely — eventually production discipline catches up with inventory, dealers clear their lots, and the negotiating leverage shifts back.
Buy with your eyes open, get pre-approved financing before you walk into a dealership, know the invoice price on any unit you’re considering, and understand that the MSRP sticker is a starting point that current market conditions have rendered largely fictional.
Markus Bryant is a full-time RVer and remote mechanical engineer currently traveling toward Vancouver Island in his Holiday Rambler Nautica diesel pusher with his girlfriend and their dog Scout. He covers RV tech, mechanicals, and industry analysis at RV Journal.
